Net impact of an Edmonton adult-literacy program
A 3-year cohort study found $3.20 in social return per dollar spent on the program.
Problem
The organisation had strong anecdotal evidence of impact but no defensible counterfactual analysis. Major funders were beginning to require quantified social return.
Approach
We tracked 412 participants over 36 months and constructed a comparison cohort of 318 similar adults from a public dataset using propensity-score matching on age, prior education, employment status, and language.
Method
Outcomes measured: employment status, income, child-rearing literacy practices, and self-reported wellbeing. Each outcome was monetised using established stakeholder-weighted SROI conventions. Sensitivity ranges computed for deadweight (20%–40%) and attribution (60%–80%).
Finding
Net SROI ratio: $3.20 per $1 invested (95% sensitivity range: $2.40–$4.10). Employment effects accounted for 58% of the monetised value.
Impact
The organisation used the analysis to secure a 5-year provincial funding renewal and to refine its programming around the highest-return participant segments.
Representative case study — methodology accurate, identifying details changed.