What would have happened anyway?

Net Impact Analysis

Counterfactuals, attribution, deadweight, displacement, drop-off — the questions that separate observed change from caused change.

The most flattering impact number is rarely the most defensible one.

How it works

  1. Step 1

    Counterfactual

    The hardest question is "what would have happened without you?" We answer it before claiming impact.

  2. Step 2

    Attribute

    How much of the change is yours? How much belongs to partners, context, secular trends?

  3. Step 3

    Deadweight

    Some of the change would have happened anyway. We estimate how much.

  4. Step 4

    Report

    Net impact, with intellectual honesty about the ranges and assumptions.

What you get

  • ●Counterfactual identification strategy
  • ●Attribution and deadweight estimates
  • ●Sensitivity ranges and assumptions log
  • ●SROI report (where appropriate)

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